The Republican gains in the November elections were indeed impressive, the most talked-about gain being that of a likely 9 Senate seats so that the new Senate will likely have a 54-46 Republican majority. The gains in the House of Representatives were at least 12 seats to something like a 247-188 Republican majority. Together, the election gave the Republicans their highest majority in Congress since the 1920's.
Republican gains were also evident at the state level. Republicans picked up 2 gubernatorial seats so that there would be a 31-19 majority of Republican Governors. Even more impressive is that the Republicans are projected to have a majority of 69 of the 99 state legislatures in the U.S., picking up 9 state legislatures.
Exit polls indicated that 3 most important issues to the voters were (1) the economy, (2) healthcare, and (3) immigration. On the healthcare issue, the exit polls revealed that almost an equal number of voters wanted to repeal Obamacare versus those who wanted greater government responsibility for healthcare. It is also significant, in terms of labor management relations, that certain candidates were elected that had taken an adverse position towards organized labor in their respective states or localities. Such winners included Governors Scott Walker in Wisconsin, Rick Snyder in Michigan, and John Kasich in Ohio. One Democratic Governor survived labor union opposition, Gina Raimondo in Rhode Island, the state treasurer who had supported deep pension cuts to state employees. The votes suggested that politicians can oppose the union agenda and still win elections.
On the other hand, union leaders claim that certain polls indicated voters were sympathetic with some union-backed efforts, like raising the minimum wage and increasing social security benefits. It may be particularly significant that voters backed minimum wage increases in 4 Republican-leaning states, including Alaska, Arkansas, Nevada and South Dakota. Voters passed ballot initiatives raising the minimum wage as high as $9.75 an hour in those states, indicating that minimum wage increases are popular with the electorate. In January, 29 states will have higher minimum wages than that of the federal minimum wage, up from 23 previously.
In public statements by the new Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, and President Obama, the two expressed some mutual interest in breaking Congressional gridlocks in the areas of bilateral trade agreements and corporate tax reform. A tax-overhaul bill might also contain a compromise acceptable to the President in which certain revenues are earmarked for infrastructure measures that could aid the economy. However, the same individuals noted contentious future issues such as the measure to expedite the Keystone XL pipeline which would provide oil through the U.S. to the refineries, and President Obama's vow to unilaterally implement immigration reforms without Congressional approval including some broader form of "amnesty" for illegals living in the U.S. As this newsletter goes to press, the President was scheduled to reveal his immigration plans in a speech scheduled for the evening of November 20, 2014.
Regarding Obamacare, Senator McConnell indicated that while there may be some sort of symbolic vote to repeal Obamacare, it is unrealistic to expect such a repeal in light of the President's veto power. It is likely instead that the Republicans will concentrate on repealing and or reforming certain particularly unpopular portions of Obamacare, beginning with a repeal of the medical device tax, and perhaps a measure to raise the required coverage of part-time workers above 30 hours a week. A particularly interesting issue concerns the individual healthcare mandate, which Republicans may try to repeal, but which the President considers crucial to ObamaCare. Republicans may also pass more bills in Congress that will be sent to the President's desk for signing or veto.
Republicans can't be too giddy about their recent successes, however, as it is anticipated that the 2016 elections will bring about a much larger turnout of voters, particularly minorities and younger voters who tend to vote Democratic. Further, of the 32 seats in the U.S. Senate that are up for re-election in 2016, Republicans are defending 19, including 6 first-term Republican Senators from states that supported President Obama in 2012-Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire.
One wonders what effect the elections will have on two labor law measures that are pending, the so-called "quickie" NLRB election rule, and the "persuader" regulations that will make it difficult for attorneys or consultants to render "advice" to employers without completing numerous forms that must be publicly filed. The Administration may try to rush through such measures in the lame duck Congressional session before the end of this year, when the Republicans will assume more power. There is some hope that the Administration will reconsider its support of the persuader measure, as even the American Bar Association has been highly critical of it.
